Is There a Stable Relationship between Unemployment and Future Inflation?

A-Tier
Journal: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
Year: 2024
Volume: 16
Issue: 4
Pages: 114-42

Authors (4)

Terry Fitzgerald (not in RePEc) Callum Jones (Federal Reserve Board (Board o...) Mariano Kulish (University of Sydney) Juan Pablo Nicolini (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Evaluating the stability of the Phillips curve using aggregate data is challenging due to the bias that endogenous monetary policy imparts on estimated Phillips curve coefficients. We argue that regional data can be used to identify the structural relationship between unemployment and inflation. Our analysis, using city- and state-level data from 1977 to 2017, is consistent with the notion that both the reduced-form and the structural parameters of the Phillips curve are, to a substantial degree, quite stable.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aejmac:v:16:y:2024:i:4:p:114-42
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-25