Nonlinearities in carbon spot-futures price relationships during Phase II of the EU ETS

C-Tier
Journal: Economic Modeling
Year: 2012
Volume: 29
Issue: 3
Pages: 884-892

Score contribution per author:

0.335 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 0.5x C-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper uses the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and the Switching Transition Regression-Exponential GARCH models (STR-EGARCH) to examine the dynamic relationships between the EU Emission Allowances (EUA) spot and futures prices during Phase II. Compared to the majority of previous studies, our empirical approach allows us to simultaneously capture asymmetry and nonlinearity effects in both return and volatility processes of carbon allowance prices. Our main findings show that carbon spot and futures returns are asymmetrically and nonlinearly linked, suggesting the usefulness of nonlinear models in pricing and forecasting carbon allowances prices.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:3:p:884-892
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-24