Retail Trading and Return Predictability in China

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Year: 2025
Volume: 60
Issue: 1
Pages: 68-104

Authors (4)

Jones, Charles M. Shi, Donghui (not in RePEc) Zhang, Xiaoyan (not in RePEc) Zhang, Xinran (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

0.503 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Using comprehensive account-level data, we separate Chinese retail investors into 5 groups and document strong heterogeneity in trading dynamics and performances. Retail investors with smaller account sizes cannot predict future returns correctly, display daily momentum patterns, fail to process public news, and show overconfidence and gambling preferences, while retail investors with larger account balances predict future returns correctly, display contrarian patterns, and incorporate public news in trading. Using performance measures established in previous literature, we find that smaller retail investors suffer from poor stock selection abilities and trading costs, while large retail investors’ stock selection abilities are offset by trading costs.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:cup:jfinqa:v:60:y:2025:i:1:p:68-104_3
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-25