The long and variable lags of monetary policy: Evidence from disaggregated price indices

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Monetary Economics
Year: 2024
Volume: 148
Issue: S

Authors (2)

Aruoba, S. Borağan (University of Maryland) Drechsel, Thomas (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We study how monetary policy affects subcomponents of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI) using local projections. Following a monetary policy contraction, the response of aggregate PCEPI turns significantly negative after over three years. There are stark differences in the timing and magnitude of the responses across price categories, including some prices that show an initially positive response. We discuss theoretical interpretations of our findings and point to useful directions for future theoretical research. We also show how to re-aggregate our cross-sectional estimates and their standard errors, taking into account dependence between different prices using a Seemingly Unrelated Regression approach. Re-aggregation exercises show that changes in expenditure behavior have not accelerated the long-lagged response of inflation to monetary policy.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:moneco:v:148:y:2024:i:s:s0304393224000886
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-24