Term Structures of Inflation Expectations and Real Interest Rates

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
Year: 2020
Volume: 38
Issue: 3
Pages: 542-553

Score contribution per author:

4.022 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

I use a statistical model to combine various surveys to produce a term structure of inflation expectations—inflation expectations at any horizon—and an associated term structure of real interest rates. Inflation expectations extracted from this model track realized inflation quite well, and in terms of forecast accuracy, they are at par with or superior to some popular alternatives. The real interest rates obtained from the model follow Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities rates as well.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:taf:jnlbes:v:38:y:2020:i:3:p:542-553
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-24