Data Revisions Are Not Well Behaved

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking
Year: 2008
Volume: 40
Issue: 2‐3
Pages: 319-340

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We document the empirical properties of revisions to major macroeconomic variables in the United States. Our findings suggest that they do not satisfy simple desirable statistical properties. In particular, we find that these revisions do not have a zero mean, which indicates that the initial announcements by statistical agencies are biased. We also find that the revisions are quite large compared to the original variables and they are predictable using the information set at the time of the initial announcement, which means that the initial announcements of statistical agencies are not rational forecasts.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:wly:jmoncb:v:40:y:2008:i:2-3:p:319-340
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-24