Bayesian Solutions for the Factor Zoo: We Just Ran Two Quadrillion Models

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Finance
Year: 2023
Volume: 78
Issue: 1
Pages: 487-557

Authors (3)

SVETLANA BRYZGALOVA (not in RePEc) JIANTAO HUANG (not in RePEc) CHRISTIAN JULLIARD (Centre for Economic Policy Res...)

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We propose a novel framework for analyzing linear asset pricing models: simple, robust, and applicable to high‐dimensional problems. For a (potentially misspecified) stand‐alone model, it provides reliable price of risk estimates for both tradable and nontradable factors, and detects those weakly identified. For competing factors and (possibly nonnested) models, the method automatically selects the best specification—if a dominant one exists—or provides a Bayesian model averaging–stochastic discount factor (BMA‐SDF), if there is no clear winner. We analyze 2.25 quadrillion models generated by a large set of factors and find that the BMA‐SDF outperforms existing models in‐ and out‐of‐sample.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:bla:jfinan:v:78:y:2023:i:1:p:487-557
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25