Machine-learning the skill of mutual fund managers

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Financial Economics
Year: 2023
Volume: 150
Issue: 1
Pages: 94-138

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We show, using machine learning, that fund characteristics can consistently differentiate high from low-performing mutual funds, before and after fees. The outperformance persists for more than three years. Fund momentum and fund flow are the most important predictors of future risk-adjusted fund performance, while characteristics of the stocks that funds hold are not predictive. Returns of predictive long-short portfolios are higher following a period of high sentiment. Our estimation with neural networks enables us to uncover novel and substantial interaction effects between sentiment and both fund flow and fund momentum.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:jfinec:v:150:y:2023:i:1:p:94-138
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-25