A new approach to multi-step forecasting using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models

C-Tier
Journal: Economics Letters
Year: 2015
Volume: 136
Issue: C
Pages: 237-242

Score contribution per author:

0.335 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 0.5x C-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

DSGE models are of interest because they offer structural interpretations, but are also increasingly used for forecasting. Estimation often proceeds by methods which involve building the likelihood by one-step ahead (h=1) prediction errors. However in principle this can be done using different horizons where h>1. Using the well-known model of Smets and Wouters (2007), for h=1 classical ML parameter estimates are similar to those originally reported. As h extends some estimated parameters change, but not to an economically significant degree. Forecast performance is often improved, in several cases significantly.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:ecolet:v:136:y:2015:i:c:p:237-242
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25