On real interest rate dynamics and regime switching

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Banking & Finance
Year: 2008
Volume: 32
Issue: 10
Pages: 2089-2098

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We find evidence of regime switching dynamics in the USA and the UK real interest rates over the period 1881-2003. For the UK, there is a regime in which the real interest rate displays a relatively stronger mean-reversion and a regime in which it displays a relatively weaker mean-reversion. The former regime is characterized by a relatively larger error in the estimation of the reversion parameter, and higher volatility. For the USA, the two regimes differ in volatility. The probability of transition from one regime to another is found to be significantly related to the inflation rate regime, and to the political regime. The results highlight the importance of regime switching in the dynamics of the real interest rate, as well as the role of inflation and political regimes in explaining this switching.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:10:p:2089-2098
Journal Field
Finance
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-25