Optimal procurement and investment in new technologies under uncertainty

Abstract

We study a buyer’s optimal investment strategy for new technologies when costs evolve stochastically and are private information to the suppliers. In a real option setting, we show how the asymmetric information on the stochastic variables optimally distorts technology choice and investment timing. We find that with multiple technologies, asymmetric information may delay or speed up investment, compared to the first-best real option benchmark. We also suggest a payment structure that implements the buyer’s optimal investment timing as a Vickrey-type auction.