The urban crime and heat gradient in high and low poverty areas

Abstract

Using spatially disaggregated daily crime data for the City of Los Angeles, this paper estimates the impact of ambient temperature on crime, and how this relationship varies across neighborhoods. Our estimates suggest that, relative to cooler days, overall crime rates are 1.72% and 1.90% higher when daily maximum temperature exceeds 75 and 90 degrees Fahrenheit respectively. This heat-crime relationship is much stronger in low-income neighborhoods, and is largely driven by non-pecuniary crimes of passion, such as domestic crimes and crimes against intimate partners. Using internal policing data, we find that the surge in crime is not a result of reduced policing effort in low-income areas during hot days. Instead, we document that characteristics of the built environment such as housing age and urban greenery are highly correlated with the slope of the heat-crime relationship. Our estimates suggest that the monetary cost of heat-induced crime incurred by the highest poverty neighborhoods is five times larger than that incurred by more affluent areas, highlighting the starkly differential impact of extreme weather even over small geographies within cities.