Red herrings: Some thoughts on the meaning of zero-probability events and mathematical modeling

C-Tier
Journal: Economics Letters
Year: 2010
Volume: 107
Issue: 2
Pages: 134-135

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 0.5x C-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Kicking off the discussion following Savage's presentation at the 1952 Paris colloquium, Arrow raised what he considered to be a difficulty with the intuitive interpretation of Savage's theorem. It suggests that decision makers strictly prefer betting on an event of measure zero over betting on a proper subset of that event. Within the realm of the revealed-preference methodology and limited verifiability, Arrow's difficulty is a red herring: the problem he poses has its origin in the technical aspects of Savage's model and not in its substantive aspect.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:ecolet:v:107:y:2010:i:2:p:134-135
Journal Field
General
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-25