Is deflation costly after all? The perils of erroneous historical classifications

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Applied Econometrics
Year: 2020
Volume: 35
Issue: 5
Pages: 614-628

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

I estimate average economic activity during periods of inflation and deflation while accounting for measurement errors in 19th century prices. These measurement errors lead to underestimation (overestimation) of economic activity during periods of inflation (deflation). By exploiting multiple deflation indicators, it is possible to recover the true relationship; the shortfall of US industrial production growth during periods of deflation ranges from −4.5 pp to −7.6 pp, instead of −2 pp. I also find a negative relationship between deflation and real activity in the UK. I then examine the cross‐country variation in the estimates for eleven countries. The patterns are consistent with stronger biases for countries with more serious measurement errors in prices.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:wly:japmet:v:35:y:2020:i:5:p:614-628
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-25