Trend inflation and exchange rate dynamics: A new Keynesian approach

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of International Money and Finance
Year: 2024
Volume: 146
Issue: C

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This study examines the exchange rate implications of trend inflation within a two-country New Keynesian (NK) model. An NK Phillips curve generalized by trend inflation makes the inflation differential smoother, more persistent, and less sensitive to the real exchange rate. A Bayesian analysis with post-Bretton Woods data for Canada and the U.S. shows that the model's equilibrium, which relies on Taylor rules with a persistent trend inflation shock and strong policy inertia, mimics empirical regularities in exchange rates that are difficult to reconcile within a standard NK model. Trend inflation helps explain the empirical puzzles of the exchange rate dynamics.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:jimfin:v:146:y:2024:i:c:s0261560624001153
Journal Field
International
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-25