Dating Business Cycles: A Methodological Contribution with an Application to the Euro Area

B-Tier
Journal: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
Year: 2004
Volume: 66
Issue: 4
Pages: 537-565

Score contribution per author:

0.670 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper proposes a dating algorithm based on an appropriately defined Markov chain that enforces alternation of peaks and troughs, and duration constraints concerning the phases and the full cycle. The algorithm, which implements Harding and Pagan's non‐parametric dating methodology, allows an assessment of the uncertainty of the estimated turning points caused by filtering and can be used to construct indices of business cycle diffusion, aiming at assessing how widespread are cyclical movements throughout the economy. Its adaptation to the notion of a deviation cycle and the imposition of depth constraints are also discussed. We illustrate the algorithm with reference to the issue of dating the euro‐area business cycle and analysing its characteristics, both from the classical and the growth cycle perspectives.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:bla:obuest:v:66:y:2004:i:4:p:537-565
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-24