Fat tails in leading indicators

C-Tier
Journal: Economics Letters
Year: 2020
Volume: 193
Issue: C

Score contribution per author:

0.503 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 0.5x C-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We analyse four leading indicators in the US economy using autoregressive models and find strong evidence in favour of GARCH effects. All series remain fat-tailed after controlling for GARCH effects, suggesting that non-Gaussianity of the innovations should be accounted for.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:ecolet:v:193:y:2020:i:c:s016517652030210x
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25