Real-time density nowcasts of US inflation: A model combination approach

B-Tier
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Year: 2023
Volume: 39
Issue: 4
Pages: 1736-1760

Authors (2)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We develop a flexible modeling framework to produce density nowcasts for US inflation at a trading-day frequency. Our framework (1) combines individual density nowcasts from three classes of parsimonious mixed-frequency models; (2) adopts a novel flexible treatment in the use of the aggregation function; and (3) permits dynamic model averaging via the use of weights that are updated based on learning from past performance. These features provide density nowcasts that can potentially accommodate non-Gaussian properties. We document the competitive properties of the nowcasts generated from our framework using high-frequency real-time data over the period 2000–2015.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:intfor:v:39:y:2023:i:4:p:1736-1760
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25