Multivariate density forecast evaluation: A modified approach

B-Tier
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Year: 2013
Volume: 29
Issue: 3
Pages: 431-441

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We consider methods of evaluating multivariate density forecasts. Most previous studies use a stacked vector which is formed by the sequence of transformed marginal and conditional variables to evaluate density forecasts. However, these methods lack power when there is contemporaneous correlation among the variables. We propose a new method which is a location-adjusted version of that used by  Clements and Smith (2002) Some Monte Carlo simulations show that our test has a higher power than the previous methods in the literature. Two empirical applications also show the usefulness of our proposed test.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:intfor:v:29:y:2013:i:3:p:431-441
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25