Conflict and Intergroup Trade: Evidence from the 2014 Russia-Ukraine Crisis

S-Tier
Journal: American Economic Review
Year: 2023
Volume: 113
Issue: 1
Pages: 34-70

Score contribution per author:

4.022 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Does armed conflict reduce trade, even in noncombat areas, through the destruction of intergroup social capital? We analyze Ukrainian trade transactions before and after the 2014 Russia-Ukraine conflict. In a difference-in-differences framework, we find that Ukrainian firms from districts with fewer ethnic Russians experienced a deeper decline in trade with Russia. This decline is economically significant, persistent, and can be explained by erosion of intergroup trust. Affected Ukrainian firms suffered a decrease in performance and diverted trade to other countries. Our results suggest that, through social effects, conflict can be economically damaging even away from combat areas.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aecrev:v:113:y:2023:i:1:p:34-70
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25