Hysteresis due to irreversible exit: Addressing the option to mothball

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Year: 2018
Volume: 92
Issue: C
Pages: 69-83

Authors (4)

Guerra, Manuel (not in RePEc) Kort, Peter (Universiteit van Tilburg) Nunes, Cláudia (not in RePEc) Oliveira, Carlos (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

0.503 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper analyses the following hitherto understudied feature in real switching options: a firm has a mothballing option and an option to permanently abandon. If the firm finds itself in an operating mode with a price just above the abandonment threshold, it is unclear whether to exercise the abandonment option or to exercise the mothballing option. If the price goes down, the firm may exit, but, surprisingly, if it goes up, it may mothball. We find that two different strategies could be optimal: one where mothballing is not a viable option and one where mothballing does occur. In the latter case a hysteresis region arises in which the firm produces at a loss, while a further price decrease induces exit and a sufficient price increase results in the firm entering the mothballing stage. Mothballing being optimal requires sufficiently large values of the price trend and the uncertainty parameter.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:dyncon:v:92:y:2018:i:c:p:69-83
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-25