Forecasting using DSGE models with financial frictions

B-Tier
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Year: 2015
Volume: 31
Issue: 1
Pages: 1-19

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper compares the quality of forecasts from DSGE models with and without financial frictions. We find that accounting for financial market imperfections does not result in a uniform improvement in the accuracy of point forecasts during non-crisis times, while the average quality of density forecast actually deteriorates. In contrast, adding frictions in the housing market proves very helpful during times of financial turmoil, outperforming both the frictionless benchmark and the alternative that incorporates financial frictions in the corporate sector. Moreover, we detect complementarities among the analyzed setups that can be exploited in the forecasting process.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:intfor:v:31:y:2015:i:1:p:1-19
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25