Quantile regression forecasts of inflation under model uncertainty

B-Tier
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Year: 2017
Volume: 33
Issue: 1
Pages: 11-20

Score contribution per author:

2.011 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

This paper examines the performance of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) methods in a quantile regression model for inflation. Different predictors are allowed to affect different quantiles of the dependent variable. Based on real-time quarterly data for the US, we show that quantile regression BMA (QR-BMA) predictive densities are superior to and better calibrated than those from BMA in the traditional regression model. In addition, QR-BMA methods also compare favorably to popular nonlinear specifications for US inflation.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:1:p:11-20
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-25