Gasoline price changes and consumer inflation expectations: Experimental evidence

B-Tier
Journal: Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization
Year: 2024
Volume: 220
Issue: C
Pages: 66-80

Score contribution per author:

0.335 = (α=2.01 / 6 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Using an experimental approach, we show that inflation expectations respond to gasoline price fluctuations. The effect, however, is small compared to other goods (food, durable goods) and not disproportionately large relative to the expenditure share of gasoline in households' basket. The effect also weakens with the forecast horizons and displays substantial asymmetry: inflation expectations respond significantly more to positive than negative gasoline price shocks. A counterfactual exercise suggests that while the sharp rise in gasoline prices that followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine contributed substantially to short-term inflation expectations dynamics, the subsequent decline in gasoline prices did not.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:jeborg:v:220:y:2024:i:c:p:66-80
Journal Field
Theory
Author Count
6
Added to Database
2026-01-25