Bias-corrected estimation for speculative bubbles in stock prices

C-Tier
Journal: Economic Modeling
Year: 2018
Volume: 73
Issue: C
Pages: 354-364

Authors (3)

Kruse, Robinson (Universität zu Köln) Kaufmann, Hendrik (not in RePEc) Wegener, Christoph (not in RePEc)

Score contribution per author:

0.335 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 0.5x C-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We provide a comparison of different finite-sample bias-correction methods for possibly explosive autoregressive processes. We compare the empirical performance of the downward-biased standard OLS estimator with an OLS and a Cauchy estimator, both based on recursive demeaning, as well as a second-differencing estimator. In addition, we consider three different approaches for bias-correction for the OLS estimator: (i) bootstrap, (ii) jackknife and (iii) indirect inference. The estimators are evaluated in terms of bias and root mean squared errors (RMSE) in a variety of practically relevant settings. Our findings suggest that the indirect inference method clearly performs best in terms of RMSE for all considered levels of persistence. In terms of bias-correction, the jackknife works best for stationary and unit root processes, but with a typically large variance. For the explosive case, the indirect inference method is recommended. As an empirical illustration, we reconsider the “dot-com bubble” in the NASDAQ index and explore the usefulness of the indirect inference estimator in terms of testing, date stamping and calculations on overvaluation.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:ecmode:v:73:y:2018:i:c:p:354-364
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25