The FOMC Risk Shift

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Monetary Economics
Year: 2021
Volume: 120
Issue: C
Pages: 21-39

Score contribution per author:

1.341 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We identify a component of monetary policy news that is extracted from high-frequency changes in risky asset prices. These surprises, which we call “risk shifts”, are uncorrelated, and therefore complementary, to risk-free rate surprises. We show that (i) risk shifts capture the lion’s share of stock price movements around FOMC announcements; (ii) that they are accompanied by significant investor fund flows, suggesting that investors react heterogeneously to monetary policy news; and (iii) that price pressure amplifies the stock market response to monetary policy news. Our results imply that central bank information effects are overshadowed by short-term dynamics stemming from investor rebalancing activities and are likely to be more difficult to identify than previously thought.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:moneco:v:120:y:2021:i:c:p:21-39
Journal Field
Macro
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25