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Lutz Kilian

Global rank #339 99%

Institution: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Primary Field: Econometrics (weighted toward more recent publications)

Homepage: https://sites.google.com/site/lkilian2019/home

First Publication: 1998

Most Recent: 2025

RePEc ID: pki110 ↗

Publication Scores

Scores use coauthorship adjustment: α/n credit per paper, where n = number of authors. α = 2.01: calibrated so average adjusted count equals average raw count (a zero-sum adjustment).

Period S (4x) A (2x) B (1x) C (½x) Total
Last 5 Years 0.00 9.05 7.04 0.00 26.14
Last 10 Years 0.00 12.74 15.58 0.00 43.07
All Time 3.02 30.16 30.67 0.00 105.57

Publication Statistics

Raw Publications 64
Coauthorship-Adjusted Count 69.17

Publications (64)

Year Article Journal Tier Authors
2025 Impulse response diagnostics for priors on parameters in structural vector autoregressions Economics Letters C 1
2025 Macroeconomic Responses to Uncertainty Shocks: The Perils of Recursive Orderings Journal of Applied Econometrics B 3
2024 State-dependent local projections Journal of Econometrics A 4
2024 How to construct monthly VAR proxies based on daily surprises in futures markets Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control B 1
2024 Heterogeneity in the pass-through from oil to gasoline prices: A new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand Journal of Public Economics A 2
2023 A broader perspective on the inflationary effects of energy price shocks Energy Economics A 2
2023 Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery International Journal of Central Banking B 3
2023 A Quantitative Model of the Oil Tanker Market in the Arabian Gulf The Energy Journal B 3
2022 Joint Bayesian inference about impulse responses in VAR models Journal of Econometrics A 2
2022 Understanding the estimation of oil demand and oil supply elasticities Energy Economics A 1
2022 Facts and fiction in oil market modeling Energy Economics A 1
2022 The impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation and inflation expectations in 2020–23 Energy Economics A 2
2022 Oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates Journal of International Money and Finance B 2
2022 Comment on Giacomini, Kitagawa, and Read’s “Narrative Restrictions and Proxies” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics A 1
2022 Oil prices, gasoline prices, and inflation expectations Journal of Applied Econometrics B 2
2022 The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking B 2
2021 Impulse response analysis for structural dynamic models with nonlinear regressors Journal of Econometrics A 4
2020 The uniform validity of impulse response inference in autoregressions Journal of Econometrics A 2
2020 Does drawing down the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve help stabilize oil prices? Journal of Applied Econometrics B 2
2019 Measuring global real economic activity: Do recent critiques hold up to scrutiny? Economics Letters C 1
2018 Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax? The Energy Journal B 3
2018 Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities Journal of International Money and Finance B 2
2018 Special Issue "Energy Challenges in an Uncertain World" Editorial The Energy Journal B 3
2017 Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump Journal of Applied Econometrics B 3
2017 Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand Journal of Applied Econometrics B 4
2017 Impulse response matching estimators for DSGE models Journal of Econometrics A 3
2017 The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers The Energy Journal B 1
2017 The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking B 2
2016 Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is This Time Different? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity B 2
2016 Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014 Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists A 2
2016 Joint confidence sets for structural impulse responses Journal of Econometrics A 2
2015 Do high-frequency financial data help forecast oil prices? The MIDAS touch at work International Journal of Forecasting B 3
2015 Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach Journal of Business & Economic Statistics A 2
2015 Comment Journal of Business & Economic Statistics A 1
2014 Are there gains from pooling real-time oil price forecasts? Energy Economics A 3
2014 Global biofuels: key to the puzzle of grain market behavior Economic Policy B 2
2014 WHAT CENTRAL BANKERS NEED TO KNOW ABOUT FORECASTING OIL PRICES International Economic Review B 2
2014 Quantifying the speculative component in the real price of oil: The role of global oil inventories Journal of International Money and Finance B 2
2014 THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL Journal of Applied Econometrics B 2
2013 Inference on impulse response functions in structural VAR models Journal of Econometrics A 2
2013 The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far? The Energy Journal B 3
2013 Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries Journal of Business & Economic Statistics A 2
2011 Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil Journal of Business & Economic Statistics A 2
2011 The Allocative Cost of Price Ceilings in the U.S. Residential Market for Natural Gas Journal of Political Economy S 2
2011 Estimating the effect of a gasoline tax on carbon emissions Journal of Applied Econometrics B 2
2011 Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices Review of Economics and Statistics A 2
2011 How Reliable Are Local Projection Estimators of Impulse Responses? Review of Economics and Statistics A 2
2010 Explaining Fluctuations in Gasoline Prices: A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the U.S. Retail Gasoline Market The Energy Journal B 1
2009 Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? Household Expectations of Inflation Based on Micro Consumption Data Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking B 3
2009 Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market American Economic Review S 1
2009 Oil shocks and external balances Journal of International Economics A 3
2009 How sensitive are consumer expenditures to retail energy prices? Journal of Monetary Economics A 2
2008 Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy? Review of Economics and Statistics A 1
2008 The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking B 2
2007 Quantifying the Risk of Deflation Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking B 2
2006 On the selection of forecasting models Journal of Econometrics A 2
2006 NEW INTRODUCTION TO MULTIPLE TIME SERIES ANALYSIS, by Helmut Lütkepohl, Springer, 2005 Econometric Theory B 1
2004 Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form Journal of Econometrics A 2
2003 THE CONTINUITY OF THE LIMIT DISTRIBUTION IN THE PARAMETER OF INTEREST IS NOT ESSENTIAL FOR THE VALIDITY OF THE BOOTSTRAP Econometric Theory B 2
2003 Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates? Journal of International Economics A 2
2001 Size distortions of tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity: evidence and implications for the PPP debate Journal of International Money and Finance B 2
2000 How accurate are confidence intervals for impulse responses in large VAR models? Economics Letters C 2
1999 Finite-Sample Properties of Percentile and Percentile-t Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Impulse Responses Review of Economics and Statistics A 1
1998 Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions Review of Economics and Statistics A 1