Closed-Form Multi-Factor Copula Models With Observation-Driven Dynamic Factor Loadings

A-Tier
Journal: Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
Year: 2021
Volume: 39
Issue: 4
Pages: 1066-1079

Authors (4)

Score contribution per author:

1.005 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We develop new multi-factor dynamic copula models with time-varying factor loadings and observation-driven dynamics. The new models are highly flexible, scalable to high dimensions, and ensure positivity of covariance and correlation matrices. A closed-form likelihood expression allows for straightforward parameter estimation and likelihood inference. We apply the new model to a large panel of 100 U.S. stocks over the period 2001–2014. The proposed multi-factor structure is much better than existing (single-factor) models at describing stock return dependence dynamics in high-dimensions. The new factor models also improve one-step-ahead copula density forecasts and global minimum variance portfolio performance. Finally, we investigate different mechanisms to allocate firms into groups and find that a simple industry classification outperforms alternatives based on observable risk factors, such as size, value, or momentum.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:taf:jnlbes:v:39:y:2021:i:4:p:1066-1079
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-25