Identifying Changes in Mean, Seasonality, Persistence and Volatility for G7 and Euro Area Inflation

B-Tier
Journal: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
Year: 2014
Volume: 76
Issue: 3
Pages: 360-388

Score contribution per author:

0.503 = (α=2.01 / 4 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

type="main" xml:lang="en"> <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>We propose an iterative decomposition that tests and accounts for multiple structural breaks in the mean, seasonality, dynamics and conditional volatility, while also accounting for outliers. Considering each component separately within each iteration leads to greater flexibility compared with joint procedures. Monte Carlo analysis shows the procedure performs well. Applied to monthly CPI inflation in G7 countries and the Euro area, we uncover mean and seasonality breaks for all countries and, allowing for these, changes in persistence are generally also indicated. Further, volatility reductions are widespread in the early to mid 1980s, with some countries exhibiting increases from 1999 onwards.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:bla:obuest:v:76:y:2014:i:3:p:360-388
Journal Field
General
Author Count
4
Added to Database
2026-01-24