Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?

B-Tier
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Year: 2019
Volume: 35
Issue: 4
Pages: 1240-1249

Score contribution per author:

2.018 = (α=2.02 / 1 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We consider whether it is possible to determine if macro forecasters are attempting to forecast first estimates of data, or revised estimates. Our approach requires that data revisions are predictable prior to the first estimate being released. There is some evidence that this condition is met for some series, and that some forecasters put some weight on later estimates for consumers’ expenditure and the GDP deflator.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:4:p:1240-1249
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-25