Do professional forecasters believe in the Phillips curve?

B-Tier
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Year: 2024
Volume: 40
Issue: 3
Pages: 1238-1254

Score contribution per author:

2.018 = (α=2.02 / 1 authors) × 1.0x B-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

The expectations-augmented Phillips curve (PC) is a cornerstone of many macroeconomic models. We consider the extent to which professional forecasters’ inflation and unemployment rate forecasts are ‘theory consistent’, and find much heterogeneity. Perceptions about the responsiveness of inflation to the unemployment rate are shown to depend on whether the respondent was active earlier or later during the period 1981–2019, and on whether the respondent happened to forecast at times of tight labour markets.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:intfor:v:40:y:2024:i:3:p:1238-1254
Journal Field
Econometrics
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-25