Score contribution per author:
α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count
Survey respondents who make point predictions and histogram forecasts of macro-variables reveal both how uncertain they believe the future to be, <italic>ex ante</italic>, as well as their <italic>ex post</italic> performance. Macroeconomic forecasters tend to be overconfident at horizons of a year or more, but overestimate (i.e., are underconfident regarding) the uncertainty surrounding their predictions at short horizons. <italic>Ex ante</italic> uncertainty remains at a high level compared to the <italic>ex post</italic> measure as the forecast horizon shortens. There is little evidence of a link between individuals' <italic>ex post</italic> forecast accuracy and their <italic>ex ante</italic> subjective assessments.