Real wages and the business cycle

A-Tier
Journal: Economic Journal
Year: 2022
Volume: 132
Issue: 645
Pages: 1765-1789

Score contribution per author:

4.022 = (α=2.01 / 1 authors) × 2.0x A-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Recessions are known to be particularly damaging to young workers’ employment outcomes. I find that during recessions the hiring rate falls faster for young workers than for more experienced workers. I show that this cannot be explained by the composition of jobs or workers’ labour supply decisions, and I conclude that firms preferentially hire experienced workers during periods of high unemployment. I develop a new model of cyclical upgrading that relaxes the classic assumptions of exogenous firm size and rigid wages. I show that this model predicts larger log wage decreases during recessions for young workers than for experienced workers, a prediction that is supported by the data. I conclude that policymakers should consider extending unemployment insurance coverage during recessions to new labour market entrants.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:oup:econjl:v:132:y:2022:i:645:p:1765-1789.
Journal Field
General
Author Count
1
Added to Database
2026-01-25