Forecast Hedging and Calibration

S-Tier
Journal: Journal of Political Economy
Year: 2021
Volume: 129
Issue: 12
Pages: 3447 - 3490

Score contribution per author:

4.022 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

Calibration means that forecasts and average realized frequencies are close. We develop the concept of forecast hedging, which consists of choosing the forecasts so as to guarantee that the expected track record can only improve. This yields all the calibration results by the same simple basic argument while differentiating between them by the forecast-hedging tools used: deterministic and fixed point based versus stochastic and minimax based. Additional contributions are an improved definition of continuous calibration, ensuing game dynamics that yield Nash equilibria in the long run, and a new calibrated forecasting procedure for binary events that is simpler than all known such procedures.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/716559
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25