Predicting and Understanding Initial Play

S-Tier
Journal: American Economic Review
Year: 2019
Volume: 109
Issue: 12
Pages: 4112-41

Authors (2)

Score contribution per author:

4.022 = (α=2.01 / 2 authors) × 4.0x S-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

Abstract

We use machine learning to uncover regularities in the initial play of matrix games. We first train a prediction algorithm on data from past experiments. Examining the games where our algorithm predicts correctly, but existing economic models don't, leads us to add a parameter to the best performing model that improves predictive accuracy. We then observe play in a collection of new "algorithmically generated" games, and learn that we can obtain even better predictions with a hybrid model that uses a decision tree to decide game-by-game which of two economic models to use for prediction.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:aea:aecrev:v:109:y:2019:i:12:p:4112-41
Journal Field
General
Author Count
2
Added to Database
2026-01-25