Can the Fed predict the state of the economy?

C-Tier
Journal: Economics Letters
Year: 2010
Volume: 108
Issue: 1
Pages: 28-32

Authors (3)

Sinclair, Tara M. (George Washington University) Joutz, Fred Stekler, H.O.

Score contribution per author:

0.335 = (α=2.01 / 3 authors) × 0.5x C-tier

α: calibrated so average coauthorship-adjusted count equals average raw count

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Abstract

We show that systematic forecast errors reveal that the Fed is "surprised" by real and inflationary cycles. The Fed knows the state of the economy for the current quarter, but cannot predict it one-quarter ahead.

Technical Details

RePEc Handle
repec:eee:ecolet:v:108:y:2010:i:1:p:28-32
Journal Field
General
Author Count
3
Added to Database
2026-01-25