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J. Scott Armstrong

Global rank #389 99%

Institution: Unknown

Primary Field: Econometrics (weighted toward more recent publications)

Homepage: http://jscottarmstrong.com

First Publication: 1985

Most Recent: 2014

RePEc ID: par65 ↗

Publication Scores

Scores use coauthorship adjustment: α/n credit per paper, where n = number of authors. α = 2.01: calibrated so average adjusted count equals average raw count (a zero-sum adjustment).

Period S (4x) A (2x) B (1x) C (½x) Total
Last 5 Years 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Last 10 Years 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
All Time 0.00 0.00 100.54 0.00 100.54

Publication Statistics

Raw Publications 67
Coauthorship-Adjusted Count 100.97

Publications (67)

Year Article Journal Tier Authors
2014 Combining forecasts: An application to elections International Journal of Forecasting B 4
2011 Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task International Journal of Forecasting B 2
2011 Role thinking: Standing in other people's shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts International Journal of Forecasting B 2
2011 Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task International Journal of Forecasting B 2
2011 Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts International Journal of Forecasting B 2
2010 Replications of forecasting research International Journal of Forecasting B 2
2009 Validity of climate change forecasting for public policy decision making International Journal of Forecasting B 3
2007 Significance tests harm progress in forecasting International Journal of Forecasting B 1
2007 Statistical significance tests are unnecessary even when properly done and properly interpreted: Reply to commentaries International Journal of Forecasting B 1
2007 P.E. Tetlock, Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know?, Princeton University Press (2006) ISBN 978-0-691-12871-9 Paperback, 352 pp.. International Journal of Forecasting B 2
2007 Structured analogies for forecasting International Journal of Forecasting B 2
2007 Forecasting of software development work effort: Introduction International Journal of Forecasting B 1
2006 Making progress in forecasting International Journal of Forecasting B 2
2006 Findings from evidence-based forecasting: Methods for reducing forecast error International Journal of Forecasting B 1
2005 Decomposition by causal forces: a procedure for forecasting complex time series International Journal of Forecasting B 3
2004 Damped seasonality factors: Introduction International Journal of Forecasting B 1
2003 Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things,: Ray C. Fair. Stanford University Press: Stanford, CA, 2002, 168 pp., Hardback, ISBN 0-8047-4509-9, $26.00. International Journal of Forecasting B 1
2002 Assessing game theory, role playing, and unaided judgment International Journal of Forecasting B 1
2002 "How useful are the forecasts of intergovernmental agencies? The IMF and OECD versus the consensus": Batchelor, Roy (2001), Applied Economics, 33, pp. 225-235. E-mail address: [email protected] International Journal of Forecasting B 1
2001 Automatic identification of time series features for rule-based forecasting International Journal of Forecasting B 4
2000 An application of rule-based forecasting to a situation lacking domain knowledge International Journal of Forecasting B 4
2000 Sales forecasts for existing consumer products and services: Do purchase intentions contribute to accuracy? International Journal of Forecasting B 3
1997 The impact of empirical accuracy studies on time series analysis and forecasting : R. Fildes and S. Makridakis, 1995, International Statistical Review, 63, 289-308 International Journal of Forecasting B 1
1996 Journal of economic literature : Clifford Winston, 1993, Economic deregulation: Days of reckoning for microeconomists, 31, 1263-1289. International Journal of Forecasting B 1
1996 Journal of business forecasting : John Hanke and Pam Weigand, 1994, What are business schools doing to educate forecasters, Fall, 10-12. International Journal of Forecasting B 1
1996 Publication of research on controversial topics: The early acceptance procedure International Journal of Forecasting B 1
1996 The validity of employment interviews: A comprehensive review and meta-analysis : Michael A. McDaniel, D.L. Whetzel, F.L. Schmidt and S.D. Maurer, 994, Journal of Applied Psychology, 79, 599-615 International Journal of Forecasting B 1
1996 Validity of an honeesty test in predicting theft among convenience store employees : H. John Bernardin and D.K. Cooke, 1993 Academy of Management Journal, 36, 1097-1108 International Journal of Forecasting B 1
1996 Heuristics, biases and improvement strategies in judgmental time series : P. Goodwin and G. Wright, 1994, Omega, 22, 553-568 International Journal of Forecasting B 1
1996 Factors affecting new product forecasting accuracy in new firms : William B. Gartner, and Robert J. Thomas, 1993, Journal of Productive Innovation Management, 10, 35-52 International Journal of Forecasting B 1
1996 Predicting insurance agent turnover using a video-based judgement test : Anthony T. Dalessio, 1994, Journal of Business an Psychology, 9, 23-32 International Journal of Forecasting B 1
1995 Beyond accuracy: Comparison of criteria used to select forecasting methods International Journal of Forecasting B 2
1994 The fertile field of meta-analysis: Cumulative progress in agricultural forecasting International Journal of Forecasting B 1
1994 Forecasting practices in US corporations: Survey results : Nada Sanders and Karl B. Manrodt, 1994, interfaces, 24, 92-100 International Journal of Forecasting B 1
1994 An analysis of the accuracy ot "trial heat" polls during the 1992 presidential election : Richard R. Lau, 1994, Public opinion quarterly, 58, 2-20 International Journal of Forecasting B 1
1994 Judgmental decomposition: when does it work? International Journal of Forecasting B 2
1994 Marketing letters : Barry L., Bayus, (1992), Have diffusion rates been accelerating over time? 3 215-226 International Journal of Forecasting B 1
1994 Omega 21: G.L. Riddington, (1993), Time varying coefficient models and their forecasting performance, 573-583 International Journal of Forecasting B 1
1993 Municipal forecasting practice: 'Demand' and 'supply' side perspectives" : Howard A. Frank and Jane McCollough, International Journal of Public Administration, 15 (1992) 1669-1696 International Journal of Forecasting B 1
1993 Finding public opinion data: A guide to sources : Tom W. Smith and Frederick D. Weil, Public Opinion Quarterly, 54 (1990), 609-626 International Journal of Forecasting B 1
1993 Accuracy of judgmental forecasts: A comparison : R. Nada Sanders, Omega, 20 (1992) 353-364 International Journal of Forecasting B 1
1993 A case study of expert judgment: Economists probabilities versus base-rate model forecasts : Phillip A. Braun and Ilan Yaniv, Journal of behavioral decision making, 5 (1992), 217-231 International Journal of Forecasting B 1
1993 The uses and abuses of consensus forecasts : Stephen K. McNees,Journal of forecasting, 11 (1992) 703-710 International Journal of Forecasting B 1
1992 Generalization and communication issues in the use of error measures: A reply International Journal of Forecasting B 2
1992 Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons International Journal of Forecasting B 2
1992 Management science : D. Bunn and G. Wright, "Interaction of Judgmental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues and Analysis", 37 (1991) 501-518 International Journal of Forecasting B 2
1992 Public opinion quarterly : Tom W. Smith and Frederick D. Weil, "Finding public opinion data: A guide to sources" 54 (1990) 609-626 International Journal of Forecasting B 1
1992 Editorial policies for the publication of controversial findings International Journal of Forecasting B 1
1992 Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities International Journal of Forecasting B 2
1991 The forecasting accuracy of market share models using predicted values of competitive marketing behavior : Karel J. Alsem, Peter S.H. Leeflang and Jan C. Reuyl, International Journal of Research in Marketing 6 (1989) 183-198. International Journal of Forecasting B 2
1991 A cautionary tale about multiple regression : Milton Friedman (the appendix to "Alternative approaches to analyzing economic data' Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz), American Economic Review 81 (1991) 48-49. International Journal of Forecasting B 1
1989 Predicting job performance: A comparison of expert opinion and research findings International Journal of Forecasting B 2
1989 Editorial: Reflections on forecasting in the 1980's International Journal of Forecasting B 1
1989 Combining forecasts: The end of the beginning or the beginning of the end? International Journal of Forecasting B 1
1988 International journal of public administration : Lance Eliot Brouthers, parties, ideology and elections: The politics of federal revenues and expenditures forecasting, 8 (1986) 289-314 International Journal of Forecasting B 2
1988 Public opinion quarterly : William Buchanan, election predictions: An empirical assessment, 50 (1986) 222-227 International Journal of Forecasting B 2
1988 Harvard Business Review : David M. Georgoff and Robert G. Murdick, manager's guide to forecasting, 64 (Jan-Feb.) (1986) 110-120 International Journal of Forecasting B 2
1988 Public opinion quarterly : James B. Lemert, picking the winners: Politician vs. voter predictions of two controversial ballot measures, 50 (1986) 208-221 International Journal of Forecasting B 2
1988 Public opinion quarterly : Steven J. Rosenstone, John Mark Hansen, and Donald R. Kinder, measuring change in personal economic well-being, 50 (1986) 176-192 International Journal of Forecasting B 2
1988 Public opinion quarterly : Jacob Shamir, preelection polls in Israel: Structural constraints on accuracy, 50 (1986) 62-75 International Journal of Forecasting B 2
1988 Communication of research on forecasting: The journal International Journal of Forecasting B 1
1988 The great depression of 1990 : Ravi Batra, (Simon and Schuster, New York, 1985) pp. 235, $14.95 International Journal of Forecasting B 1
1988 Organizational behavior and human decision processes : Wagenaar, Willem A. and G.B. Keren, The seat belt paradox: Effect off accepted roles on information seeking,, 38 (1986), 1-6 International Journal of Forecasting B 1
1988 Journal of personality and social psychology : Osberg, Timothy M. and J. Sidney Shrauger, Self-prediction: Exploring the parameters of accuracy, 51 (1986), 1044-1057 International Journal of Forecasting B 1
1987 Editorial International Journal of Forecasting B 2
1985 From the editors International Journal of Forecasting B 4
1985 J. Scott Armstrong, Forecasting by extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 years of research, Interfaces 14 (1984), pp. 52-66. International Journal of Forecasting B 1